Thursday, November 28, 2013

FAA Warning: Boeing 747,787 Engine Icing Could Lead to Forced Landings

As promised, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Wednesday issued a formal airworthiness directive on The Boeing Co.'s (NYSE: BA) 747-8, 747-8F, and 787-8 aircraft equipped with the GEnx engines from General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE). The directive may be more severe than Boeing and GE anticipated however.

The directive requires Boeing to revise the planes' flight manuals "to advise the flight crew of potential ice crystal icing (ICI) conditions at high altitudes, and to prohibit operation in moderate and severe ICI conditions."

Last Friday, Boeing notified 15 customers for its 747s and 787s that planes equipped with the GEnx engine from GE could have an icing problem if the planes flew within 50 nautical miles of high-altitude thunderstorms. The FAA directive cited nine incidents where the GE engines lost thrust or experienced vibrations as a result of icing. That's three more than the six incidents Boeing claimed last week because the company did not include the vibration incidents.

The only U.S. carrier currently flying the 787 Dreamliner is United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE: UAL) and United Airlines said it would not change its plans to use the planes. Japan Airlines has said it will replace Dreamliners on two of its routes from Tokyo to Delhi and Tokyo to Singapore.

The FAA directive also said:

We are issuing this [airworthiness directive] to ensure that the flight crews have operating instructions to avoid flight into ICI conditions that can lead to engine damage and thrust loss events; unrecoverable thrust loss on multiple engines can lead to a forced landing.

Top 10 Safest Companies To Own In Right Now

The FAA noted two incidents where a four-engine 747-8F lost thrust on two engines during flight. In one incident one of the engines "recovered to idle but would not accelerate." The other engine did recover and the flight was able to continue. In both cases where two engines lost thrust, inspections revealed compressor damage on both affected engines and damage to a third that had not experienced a loss of thrust. The FAA noted, "Unrecoverable thrust loss on multiple engines, due to operation in high altitude clouds containing ice crystals, could lead to a forced landing."

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Orange to Sell Dominican Unit to Altice for $1.4 Billion

Orange SA (ORA), France's biggest phone company, agreed to sell its Dominican Republic unit to Altice, a cable and telecommunications investor, for $1.4 billion.

Completion of the deal is subject to approval from Dominican authorities, and Orange's board will consider the transaction in the week starting Dec. 9, Altice said yesterday. The sale includes the use of the Orange brand.

Orange, based in Paris, put the business up for sale this year and has said it attracted multiple bids. Luxembourg-based Altice, founded by telecommunications entrepreneur Patrick Drahi, last month agreed to purchase Tricom SA and Global Interlink Ltd. to expand its television, Internet and telephone packages and wireless business in the Caribbean.

Orange gets "important cash" by selling what analysts at Banco Espirito Santo SA called a non-core asset in a note today. It's also seen as "providing more reassurance on the group's dividend commitment."

European telecommunications companies are disposing of peripheral assets as they increase investments in high-speed mobile networks in their largest markets and cut debt. Last week, Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) agreed to sell a 70 percent stake in its Scout24 Holding digital-classifieds business.

Altice is also seeking to finalize an agreement with Grupo Leon Jimenes to become local partners on its telecommunications investments in the Dominican Republic, including Orange Dominicana and Tricom, it said.

Orange Dominicana

Orange rose 0.4 percent to 9.57 euros at 12:02 p.m. in Paris. The former French phone monopoly's stock has rebounded since reaching its lowest in a decade in July, partly reflecting Chief Executive Officer Stephane Richard's efforts to cut costs.

Orange Dominicana SA was established in 2000 and has 3.4 million subscribers. It posted sales of about $581 million in 2012. The deal values the unit at about 2.4 times its annual revenue. The average price for 40 telecommunications acquisitions worth more than $500 million this year was 1.83 times annual sales, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Sales and earnings at Orange are falling as domestic competition with rivals including discounter Iliad SA (ILD) weighs on prices. The carrier, which has diversified into countries from Poland to Egypt, is also trying to keep a lid on debt.

'Asset Optimization'

The Dominican sale is a "significant step forward in the optimization of Orange's assets portfolio," the company said in its statement today.

Orange was advised by Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and Messier, Maris & Associes. Altice was advised by Lazard Ltd. Goldman Sachs Group Inc lead the financing on the deal, working with Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Plc and Credit Agricole SA.

Altice owns and operates cable, mobile, Internet and data-center companies in places including Israel, Belgium, the Indian Ocean region, Portugal and Switzerland, according to its website. It's the biggest shareholder in France's largest cable operator Numericable SAS (NUM), which held an initial public offering this month. Lazard Ltd. advised Altice on the Dominican deal.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

5 Retail Trades to Take Before Black Friday

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- We're just a few days away from the most important sporting event of the year. No, it's not the Super Bowl or the World Cup. I'm talking about Black Friday.

Black Friday, after all, is the one day each year when mild-mannered suburbanites become ruthless competitors, hurdling clothing racks and shot-putting purchases across cashiers' scanners at high speed to get the best deals. Black Friday is also some very high stakes competition -- ShopperTrak estimates that consumers spent a whopping $11.2 billion in last year's bargain frenzy.

For retail stocks, there's no single day as important as Black Friday. That's true even in many retail names that don't actively participate in Black Friday sales. Not surprisingly, all of that attention on a single sector means that there are trades to be made in retail stocks this week.

So, while shoppers get ready to save on Black Friday, we'll get trade to trade with a close technical look at five retail stocks making moves this week.

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

Without further ado, let's take a look at five technical setups worth trading now.

Home Depot

If you're in the market for a good deal on a cordless drill, home improvement chain Home Depot (HD) is a good bet on Friday. But it's the price action in shares that's flagging our attention this week. After pushing 29% higher since the start of 2013, HD is indicating higher ground in the near-term.

That's because shares of Home Depot are currently forming a textbook ascending triangle pattern, a bullish setup that's formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares (at $80 in this case) and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as HD bounces in between those two technically significant price levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above that $80 price ceiling. When that happens, we've got a buy signal in shares.

Burger King's rectangle pattern is a consolidation setup that's formed by a pair of horizontal resistance and support level at those $21 and $19 price levels. The rectangle pattern gets its name because it basically "boxes in" shares between those two levels; the signal to watch is the break outside of that box. Shares are testing a $21 breakout in today's session, but we'll want to see that move get confirmed tomorrow before it makes sense to jump in.

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of those buyers and sellers. Rectangles, triangles, and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable/ Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That $21 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above it so significant – the move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level. Don't be early on this trade...

Macy's

Department store chain Macy's (M) has been showing traders some outstanding relative strength in 2013. The very same week, in fact, that peer J.C. Penney (JCP) is getting pulled from the S&P 500 because of lower market value, Macy's is actually pushing into multiyear highs. Here's how to trade it.

Macy's has spent the last few months forming a rounding bottom setup. The rounding bottom looks just like it sounds; it indicates a shift in control of shares from sellers to buyers. The buy signal for Macy's came on a push through $50 resistance, a move that just got confirmed this week. With shares definitively catching a bid above $50, now's the time to be a buyer.

Kohl's is currently trending higher in a well-defined price channel, a setup that gives us a high probability price range for KSS' shares to trade within. Now, with shares bouncing off of trendline support, we're coming on a timely buying opportunity. Buying at support has proven prescient each of the last several times KSS has tested the support level that it established in January.

Despite the length of the uptrend, Kohl's relative strength continues to be holding up, which means that Kohl's is still rallying harder than the S&P 500 this year, even though we're 11 months into the uptrend in this retail stock. That relative strength staying power adds some confidence to buying a position in KSS this week.

Dollar Tree

Last up is Dollar Tree (DLTR), a stock that's showing the exact same price setup as the one in Kohl's. This deep discount retail name is forming another uptrending channel trade. Just like KSS, the high-probability trade in DLTR is to buy the bounce.

Buying off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring the Dollar Tree can actually still catch a bid along that line.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Tech stocks slip as Teradata tumbles

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Technology stocks took it on the chin Tuesday, joining in a broad market retreat, with shares of Teradata falling sharply on a weak business outlook and the budget impasses continuing in Washington, D.C.

Teradata (TDC)   shares sank more than 18%, to close at $42.91, a day after the company cut its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $2.70 to $2.80 a share. Wall Street analysts had forecast Teradata to earn $2.85 a share.

Teradata was the top decliner on the S&P 500, which fell 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP)  shed 21 points, or 0.6%, to close at 3,794, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 133 points.

Facebook (FB)  gave up its mild gains to shed a penny a share and close at $49.50.

Bloomberg Enlarge Image Mark Zuckerberg.

Evercore Partners analyst Ken Sena raised his price target to $60 from $45, citing "massive pricing momentum" and signs of a strengthening online ad business.

"We see better targeting by Facebook as driving additional pricing appreciation over several years for Facebook," Sena told clients in a note.

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Shares of Demand Media (DMD)  shed almost 9% after the company announced that Chief Executive Richard Rosenblatt was stepping down.

The government shutdown continued to be a key concern among investors and analysts.

In a note, ISI Group analyst Brian Marshall pointed to NetApp Inc. and VMware Inc. as two tech players with sizable exposures to U.S. federal spending, noting how both stocks have declined since the shutdown began.

"In our view, this underperformance during the shutdown is an overreaction," he wrote, arguing that NetApp, VMware and Cisco Systems "are already entrenched in federal programs."

NetApp (NTAP)  shares ended the day down 2.5% in Tuesday, while VMware (VMW)  was off almost 3% and Cisco (CSCO)  gave up 0.7%

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) eked out a gain of 4 cents a share, to close at $34.49, and Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares rose $2.64, to $498.68 on news that the iPhone maker has hired Angela Ahrendts to lead the company's retail division.

The Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index (MSH)  and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)  both closed in the red.

Shares of Yahoo Inc. (YHOO)  fell almost 2% ahead of the company's earnings report due after the market closes. Intel Corp. (INTC)   which was also scheduled to report results Tuesday, fell by 6 cents a share to close at $23.39.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Hot Biotech Companies To Watch For 2014

Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG  ) shares have soared more than 46% so far in 2013. This booming biotech stock can't go much higher, right? Surely, it's time now to take profits. Actually, the company just announced two developments that add to the reasons to buy Celgene rather than sell.

Facing the giants
For a company known for its blood cancer drugs, Celgene has been quite excited about anti-inflammatory drug apremilast. Clinical results for apremilast have been positive, but some observers have been a little skeptical about the drug's potential in the face of stiff competition. Celgene today announced more results from a phase 3 study of apremilast that could melt some of that skepticism.

Patients with psoriatic arthritis who took 20mg doses of apremilast for 52 weeks showed ACR 20 scores of 63%. Patients taking 30mg doses demonstrated ACR scores of 55%. These ACR scores are measurements established by the American College of Rheumatology that reflect 20% improvement in tender or swollen joint counts as well as 20 percent improvement in three other criteria. Apremilast's 52-week results show significant improvement from earlier results.

Hot Biotech Companies To Watch For 2014: Prima BioMed Ltd (PBMD)

Prima BioMed Ltd is a biotechnology company is engaged in the development and commercialization of medical therapies with a focus on oncology. Its product candidates in development include Cvac, an autologous dendritic cell vaccine for ovarian cancer, monoclonal antibodies for multiple tumour types, and an oral formulation for the human papilloma virus (HPV), vaccine. Its product candidate Cvac is a dendritic cell therapy, for which it is conducting a Phase IIb trial for the treatment of ovarian cancer. Cvac is designed to target the tumour antigen mucin-1, which is expressed at high levels on different tumour types. It also has two preclinical product development programs. In May 2011, Prima BioMed GmbH, a 100 % owned subsidiary of Prima BioMed Ltd, was incorporated in Germany. In May 2011, Prima BioMed Middle East FZLLC, a 100 % owned subsidiary of Prima BioMed Ltd, was incorporated in the United Arab Emirates. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Prima Biomed (NASDAQ: PBMD) shares dipped 38.59% to touch a new 52-week low of $1.44 after the company reported top-line analysis of CVac Phase 2 trial.

  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Prima Biomed (NASDAQ: PBMD) dropped 38.17% to $1.45 after the company reported top-line analysis of CVac Phase 2 trial.

    Tower Group International (NASDAQ: TWGP) plummeted 24.31% to $10.49. Tower Group announced its plans to release its Q2 results during the week of October 7, 2013. FBR Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform.

Hot Biotech Companies To Watch For 2014: Sanofi(SNY)

sanofi-aventis engages in the discovery, development, and distribution of therapeutic solutions to improve the lives of everyone. The company offers a range of healthcare assets, including a broad-based product portfolio in prescription drugs, OTC/OTX, generics, vaccines, and animal health. It has a strategic alliance with Regulus Therapeutics Inc. to discover, develop, and commercialize micro-RNA therapeutics, initially in fibrosis. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By C.R. Jackson]

    Fanapt was discovered by Hoechst Marion Roussel in 1995 as a novel atypical antipsychotic agent. Hoechst was a German life-sciences company that became Aventis Deutschland after its merger with France's Rhône-Poulenc in 1999. When the company joined with Sanofi-Synthélabo in 2004, it became a subsidiary of the Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) the French pharmaceutical conglomerate. In 1997, Hoechst sold the research rights to Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP.OB). Then Titan quickly sold the worldwide rights to Novartis in 1998. Novartis then sold the Phase 3 development rights for loperidone to Vanda in 2004. Vanda originally attempted to get FDA approval for Fanapt in 2008, but the FDA refused to approve iloperidone. The agency required an additional clinical trial.

Top Tech Companies To Invest In Right Now: Organovo Holdings Inc (ONVO)

Organovo Holdings, Inc. (Organovo), formerly Real Estate Restoration & Rental, Inc., incorporated in 2007, is a development-stage company. The Company has developed and is commercializing a platform technology for the generation of three-dimensional (3D) human tissues that can be employed in drug discovery and development, biological research, and as therapeutic implants for the treatment of damaged or degenerating tissues and organs. On December 28, 2011, Real Estate Restoration and Rental, Inc.�� (RERR) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger, pursuant to which RERR merged with its, wholly owned subsidiary, Organovo (Merger Sub). On February 8, 2012, the Company merged with and into Organovo Acquisition Corp. (Acquisition Corp.), a wholly owned subsidiary of Organovo, with the Company surviving the merger as a wholly owned subsidiary of Organovo Holdings (the Merger). As a result of the Merger, Organovo acquired the business of Organovo, Inc.

The Company has collaborative research agreements with Pfizer, Inc. (Pfizer) and United Therapeutic Corporation (Unither). As of March 31, 2012, it has five federal grants, including Small Business Innovation Research grants and developed the NovoGen MMX Bioprinter (its first-generation 3D bioprinter). The Company is engaged in the development of specific 3D human tissues to aid Pfizer in discovery of therapies in two areas of interest. In addition, in October 2011, it entered into a research agreement with Unither to establish and conduct a research program to discover treatments for pulmonary hypertension using its NovoGen MMX Bioprinter technology. Additionally, under the research agreement with Unither, the Company granted Unither an option to acquire from the Company a worldwide, royalty-bearing license in certain intellectual property created under the research agreement solely for use in the treatment or prevention of pulmonary hypertension and all other lung diseases.

The Company�� NovoGen MMX Bioprinter is an automate! d device that enables the fabrication of three-dimensional (3D) living tissues comprised of mammalian cells. A custom graphic user interface (GUI) facilitates the 3D design and execution of scripts that direct precision movement of the dispensing heads to deposit cellular building blocks (bio-ink) or supporting hydrogel. The Company is using a third party manufacturer, Invetech Pty., of Melbourne, Australia, to manufacture its NovoGen MMX Bioprinter. Its bioprinting technology and surrounding intellectual property and commercial rights serve as a platform for product generation across multiple markets that employ cell- and tissue-based products and services.

The Company competes with Organogenesis, Advanced BioHealing, Tengion, Genzyme, HumaCyte and Cytograft Tissue Engineering.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Harry Boxer]

    HARRY:  It is.  More than 10 years, I visited 3-D systems and saw a demo, and it was like whoa.  They weren’t even public then.  Of late, SSYS (Stratasys), Proto Labs (PRLB), EX1; those are the four big ones in the industry.  There is a little buy-out tech company called Orvganovo (ONVO) that is now bio-printing organs for testing.

  • [By James E. Brumley]

    If you're looking for some trading action, then Organovo Holdings Inc. (NYSEMKT:ONVO) and Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB) are the two top names to put on your radar today. Granted, they're trading candidates for completely opposing reasons. In fact, the best "play" may be to swap one for the other. However you want to play it though, here's what you need to know about ALB and ONVO.

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Organovo Holdings (NYSEMKT: ONVO  ) was one of last week's biggest winners, soaring 55% after making the leap to the more prolific NYSE MKT exchange.

Hot Biotech Companies To Watch For 2014: Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc(SVNT)

Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing KRYSTEXXA, a biologic PEGylated uricase in the United States. The KRYSTEXXA is being developed as a treatment for chronic gout in patients refractory to conventional therapy. The company also sells and distributes branded and generic versions of oxandrolone, a drug used to promote weight gain following involuntary weight loss. It sells its products directly to drug wholesalers. The company, formerly known as Bio-Technology General Corp. and changed its name to Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in June 2003. Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in East Brunswick, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By James E. Brumley]

    Since 2008's implosion from the stock, the interest in Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:SVNT) has been waning. There was a brief burst of bullishness in September of last year, which stirred the bullish pot a little. But, when SVNT started to fade in October of that year - just as quickly as it had perked up - what lingering hopes there were for the stock finally started to melt away. By the middle of this year, pretty much everyone had written Savient Pharmaceuticals off as a lost cause. Big mistake. Over the last few days, SVNT has almost wiggled its way buck into a bullish zone.

Hot Biotech Companies To Watch For 2014: Cell Therapeutics Inc (CTIC)

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTI), incorporated in 1991, develops, acquires and commercializes treatments for cancer. The Company�� research, development, acquisition and in-licensing activities concentrate on identifying and developing new ways to treat cancer. As of December 31, 2011, CTI focused its efforts on Pixuvri (pixantrone dimaleate) (Pixuvri), OPAXIO (paclitaxel poliglumex) (OPAXIO), tosedostat, brostallicin and bisplatinates. As of December 31, 2011, it developed Pixuvri, an anthracycline derivative for the treatment of hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. Another late-stage drug candidate of the Company, OPAXIO, is being studied as a potential maintenance therapy for women with advanced stage ovarian cancer, who achieve a complete remission following first-line therapy with paclitaxel and carboplatin. As of December 31, 2011, it also developed tosedostat in collaboration with Chroma Therapeutics, Ltd. (Chroma). On May 31, 2012, CTI completed its acquisition gaining worldwide rights to S*BIO Pte Ltd.'s (S*BIO) pacritinib.

Pixuvri

As of December 31, 2011, the Company developed Pixuvri, an aza-anthracenedione derivative, for the treatment of non-Hodgkin�� lymphoma (NHL), and various other hematologic malignancies, and solid tumors. Pixuvri was studied in the Company�� EXTEND, or PIX301, clinical trial, which was a phase III single-agent trial of Pixuvri for patients with relapsed, refractory aggressive NHL who received two or more prior therapies and who were sensitive to treatment with anthracyclines. On September 28, 2011, CTI announced that a second independent radiology assessment of response and progression endpoint data from its PIX301 clinical trial of Pixuvri was achieved with statistical significance. The results of the EXTEND trial met its primary endpoint and showed that patients randomized to treatment with Pixuvri achieved a significantly higher rate of confirmed and unconfirmed complete response compared to patients treated with standard chem! otherapy had a significantly increased overall response rate and experienced a statistically significant improvement in median progression free survival. Pixuvri had predictable and manageable toxicities when administered at the proposed dose and schedule in the EXTEND clinical trial in heavily pre-treated patients. In March 2011, the Company initiated the PIX-R trial to study Pixuvri in combination with rituximab in patients with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Pixuvri has also been studied in patients with HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer who have tumor progression after at least two, but not more than three, prior chemotherapy regimens. In the second quarter of 2010, the NCCTG opened this phase II study for enrollment. The study is closed to accrual and results are expected to be reported by the NCCTG later in 2012.

OPAXIO

OPAXIO is the Company�� biologically-enhanced chemotherapeutic agent that links paclitaxel to a biodegradable polyglutamate polymer, resulting in a new chemical entity. As of December 31, 2011, the Company focused its development of OPAXIO on ovarian, brain, esophageal, head and neck cancer. OPAXIO was designed to improve the delivery of paclitaxel to tumor tissue while protecting normal tissue from toxic side effects. In November 2010, results were presented by the Brown University Oncology Group from a phase II trial of OPAXIO combined with temozolomide (TMZ), and radiotherapy in patients with newly-diagnosed, high-grade gliomas, a type of brain cancer. The trial demonstrated a high rate of complete and partial responses and a high rate of six month progression free survival (PFS). Based on these results, the Brown University Oncology Group has initiated a randomized, multicenter, phase II study of OPAXIO and standard radiotherapy versus TMZ and radiotherapy for newly diagnosed patients with glioblastoma with an active gene termed MGMT that reduces responsiveness to TMZ. A phase I/II study of OPAXIO combined with radi! otherapy ! and cisplatin was initiated by SUNY Upstate Medical University, in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer.

Tosedostat

In March 2011, the Company entered into a co-development and license agreement with Chroma Therapeutics, Ltd. (Chroma), providing the Company with marketing and co-development rights to Chroma�� drug candidate, tosedostat, in North, Central and South America. Tosedostat is an oral, aminopeptidase inhibitor that has demonstrated anti-tumor responses in blood related cancers and solid tumors in phase I-II clinical trials. Interim results from the phase II OPAL study of tosedostat in elderly patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) showed that once-daily, oral doses of tosedostat had predictable and manageable toxicities and results demonstrated response rates, including a high-response rate among patients who received prior hypomethylating agents, which are used to treat myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), a precursor of AML.

Brostallicin

As of December 31, 2011, the Company developed brostallicin through its wholly owned subsidiary, Systems Medicine LLC, which holds rights to use, develop, import and export brostallicin. Brostallicin is a synthetic deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) minor groove binding agent that has demonstrated anti-tumor activity and a favorable safety profile in clinical trials, in which more than 230 patients have been treated as of December 31, 2011. The Company uses a genomic-based platform to guide the development of brostallicin. A phase II study of brostallicin in relapsed, refractory soft tissue sarcoma met its predefined activity and safety hurdles and resulted in a first-line phase II clinical trial study that was conducted by the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC).

The Company competes with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Roche Group, Genentech, Inc., Astellas Pharma, Eli Lilly and Company, Celgene, Telik, I! nc., TEVA! Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. and PharmaMar.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Bryan Murphy]

    If you're reading this, then odds are you already know that the last two weeks (not even a full two weeks) have been more fruitful for Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:CTIC) shareholders than the prior two years have been - the stock's up 28% since last Thursday. And, odds are you already know why. The question most of you are asking now is, can CTIC actually keep climbing at this pace, or even keep climbing at any pace? The answer is "yes", though floating that answer almost inherently requires a deeper explanation.

  • [By John Udovich]

    If you have not been watching the biotech sector lately, you should start paying attention as the sector along with small cap biotech stocks like Cell Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: CTIC), BIND Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: BIND) and TNI BioTech (OTCMKTS: TNIB) continue to produce a steady stream of good news for investors thanks to positive industry trends. Moreover, Ophthotech Corp (NASDAQ: OPHT), Foundation Medicine Inc (NASDAQ: FMI), Evoke Pharma and Fate Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: FATE) are this week's biotech IPOs that will no doubt be watched closely by Wall Street and industry observers in general. With that in mind, consider the following biotech news or recent articles about the industry and the small cap players in it:

  • [By Nathalie Tadena]

    Among the companies with shares expected to actively trade in Friday’s session are Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.(VNDA), Kimberly-Clark(KMB) and Cell Therapeutics(CTIC).

Hot Biotech Companies To Watch For 2014: Celgene Corp (CELG)

Celgene Corporation is a global biopharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases. The Company is engaged in the research and development, which is designed to bring new therapies to market, and is engaged in research in several scientific areas that may deliver therapies, focusing areas, such as intracellular signaling pathways in cancer and immune cells, immunomodulation in cancer and autoimmune diseases, and therapeutic application of cell therapies. The Company�� primary commercial stage products include REVLIMID, VIDAZA, THALOMID, ABRAXANE and ISTODAX. Additional sources of revenue include a licensing agreement with Novartis, which entitles it to royalties on FOCALIN XR and the entire RITALIN family of drugs, the sale of services through its Cellular Therapeutics subsidiary and other miscellaneous licensing agreements. In March 2012, it acquired Avila Therapeutics.

The Company invests in research and development, and the drug candidates in its pipeline at various stages of preclinical and clinical development. These candidates include pomalidomide and apremilast, its oral anti-cancer and anti-inflammatory agents, PDA-001, its cellular therapy, oral azacitidine, CC-223 and CC-115 for hematological and solid tumor malignancies, CC-122, its anti-cancer pleiotropic pathway modifier, and ACE-011 and ACE-536 biological products for anemia in several clinical settings of unmet need. Celgene product candidates include Pomalidomide (CC-4047), Oral Anti-Inflammatory: Apremilast (CC-10004), CC-11050, Kinase Inhibitors:Tanzisertib (CC-930), Cellular Therapies: PDA-001, Activin Biology: Sotatercept (ACE-011) ACE-536, and Anti-tumor Agents: CC-22, CC-115, CC-122 and Oral Azacitidine. It owns and operates a manufacturing facility in Zofingen, Switzerland. The Company also owns and operates a drug product manufacturing facility in Boudry, Switzerland.

Commercial! Stage Products

REVLIMID (lenalidomide) is an oral immunomodulatory drug marketed in the United States and many international markets, in combination with dexamethasone, for treatment of patients with multiple myeloma who have received at least one prior therapy. It is also marketed in the United States and certain international markets for the treatment of transfusion-dependent anemia due to low- or intermediate-1-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) associated with a deletion 5q cytogenetic abnormality with or without additional cytogenetic abnormalities. REVLIMID is distributed in the United States through contracted pharmacies under the RevAssist program, which is a risk-management distribution program. Internationally, REVLIMID is distributed under mandatory risk-management distribution programs.

REVLIMID continues to be evaluated in numerous clinical trials worldwide either alone or in combination with one or more other therapies in the treatment of a range of hematological malignancies, including multiple myeloma (MDS) various lymphomas, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) other cancers and other diseases. VIDAZA (azacitidine for injection) is a pyrimidine nucleoside. VIDAZA is a Category 1 recommended treatment for patients with intermediate-2 and high-risk MDS and is marketed in the United States for the treatment of all subtypes of MDS. In Europe, VIDAZA is marketed for the treatment of intermediate-2 and high-risk MDS, as well as acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with 30% blasts and has been granted orphan drug designation for the treatment of MDS and AML.

THALOMID (thalidomide) is marketed for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma and for the acute treatment of the cutaneous manifestations of moderate to severe erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) an inflammatory complication of leprosy and as maintenance therapy for prevention and suppression of the cutaneous manifestation of ENL recurrence. THALOMID is distributed in the United States under its System f! or Thalid! omide Education and Prescribing Safety (S.T.E.P.S.) program. Internationally, THALOMID is also distributed under mandatory risk-management distribution programs. ABRAXANE (paclitaxel albumin-bound particles for injectable suspension) is a solvent-free chemotherapy treatment option for metastatic breast cancer, which was developed using its nab technology platform. This protein-bound chemotherapy agent combines paclitaxel with albumin. As of December 31, 2011, ABRAXANE was in various stages of investigation for the treatment of expanded applications for metastatic breast; non-small cell lung; malignant melanoma; pancreatic; bladder and ovarian.

ISTODAX (romidepsin) has received orphan drug designation for the treatment of non-Hodgkin's T-cell lymphomas, which includes CTCL and PTCL. The Company has licensed the worldwide rights (excluding Canada) regarding certain chirally pure forms of methylphenidate for FOCALIN and FOCALIN XR to Novartis. It also licensed to Novartis the rights related to long-acting formulations of methylphenidate and dex-methylphenidate products which are used in FOCALIN XR and RITALIN LA.

Preclinical and Clinical-Stage Pipeline

The product candidates in the Company�� pipeline are at various stages of preclinical and clinical development. Pomalidomide is a small molecule that is orally available and modulates the immune system and other biologically important targets. Pomalidomide is being evaluated in a phase III clinical trial for the treatment of myelofibrosis and a phase III clinical trial evaluating pomalidomide as a treatment for patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma is accruing patients.

The Company is developing a product, ORAL ANTI-INFLAMMATORY AGENTS, which is orally available small molecules that target PDE4, an intracellular enzyme that modulates the production of multiple pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory mediators, including interleukin-2 (IL-2), IL-10, IL-12, IL-23, INF-gamma, TNF-a, leukotrienes,! and nitr! ic oxide synthase. Its investigational drug, apremilast (CC-10004), is used for the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis and active psoriatic arthritis and is being evaluated in a phase II trial for rheumatoid arthritis and six phase III multi-center international clinical trials. In addition, it is investigating its oral PDE4 inhibitor, CC-11050, which is an anti-inflammatory compound that treat a variety of chronic inflammatory conditions, such as Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus (CLE).

The Company�� oral kinase inhibitor platform includes inhibitors of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) mTOR kinase, spleen tyrosine kinase (Syk) c-fms tyrosine kinase (c-FMS) and DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNAPK). Its oral Syk, c-FMS and DNAPK kinase inhibitors are being investigated in pre-clinical studies. The Company�� new second generation JNK inhibitor, tanzisertib (CC-930), is being evaluated in a phase II trial for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and a phase II trial for the treatment of discoid lupus is accruing patients. Amrubicin is a third-generation fully synthetic anthracycline molecule with potent topoisomerase II inhibition.

At Celgene Cellular Therapeutics (CCT), it is researching stem cells derived from the human placenta, as well as from the umbilical cord. CCT is the Company�� research and development division. Stem cell based therapies provide disease-modifying outcomes for serious diseases, which lack adequate therapy. It has developed technology for collecting, processing and storing placental stem cells with broad therapeutic applications in cancer, auto-immune diseases, including Crohn's disease, multiple sclerosis, neurological disorders, including stroke and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), graft-versus-host disease, and other immunological / anti-inflammatory, rheumatologic and bone disorders.

The Company has collaborated with Acceleron Pharma, Inc. (Acceleron) to develop sotatercept. Two phase I clinical studies have been co! mpleted. ! An additional phase II clinical study has been initiated and is ongoing related to treatments for end-stage renal anemia and to evaluate effects on red blood cell mass and plasma volume.

The Company competes with Abbott Laboratories, Amgen Inc. (Amgen), AstraZeneca PLC., Biogen Idec Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., Eisai Co., Ltd., F. Hoffmann-LaRoche Ltd., Johnson and Johnson, Merck and Co., Inc., Novartis AG, Pfizer, Sanofi and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. (Takeda).

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sean Williams]

    The current standard of treatment
    Celgene's (NASDAQ: CELG  ) Revlimid is the current shining star of multiple myeloma. Approved in 2006, Revlimid met its primary endpoint of extending time-to-progression when taken with dexamethasone in the first of two studies (median TTP of 37.1 weeks compared to just 19.9 weeks for the dexamethasone control arm). Sales of the drug have really taken off and accounted for $3.8 billion of Celgene's nearly $5.4 billion in product sales in 2012.

  • [By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]

    Celgene provides products that are seeing increased demand from a growing customer base around that world. The company released a new arthritis drug and is expecting high sales from the treatment. The stock has been surging higher over the last couple of years and is currently trading near highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been decreasing while revenues have been rising, leaving investors with conflicting feelings. Relative to its peers and sector, Celgene has led its peers and sector in year-to-date performance by a wide margin. Look for Celgene to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Conquer social media – it's like falling off a blog

In my last blog post, we got to the heart of why any adviser should establish a personal online presence, one that goes way beyond a corporate website.

Now, we're going to tackle “the how.”

When financial advisers come to me to talk about Twitter or Facebook, I ask them for their URL. Typically, they will offer up a Twitter handle or a user name. Some will give me the website address of their firm's corporate homepage.

Either way, they're missing something very important: The core of an adviser's social media game plan should be a blog. All other social media sites, from Twitter to Facebook to LinkedIn to StockTwits, should be built around a blog. Think of your social-media strategy as a human body: the blog is the torso and the networks and sites you use are the appendages attached to it.

The blog is where you write long-form on topics and issues that are important to you. It's where you record your day-to-day thoughts, and how you showcase your skill sets and knowledge. Other social sites and services offer you an opportunity to do this, but in a diluted fashion or on a smaller scale.

With a blog, you are in complete control of the look, feel, aesthetics and content. It's a trophy case for who you are, what you've accomplished and how seriously you take your profession. It's a living library for all of the information you find compelling enough to fill it with. It's a chronicle of your professional and maybe even your personal triumphs and tribulations.

While there is nothing innately wrong with posting your writing directly to Facebook or LinkedIn, you should realize that by doing so, you are creating content for Facebook or for LinkedIn and not for yourself. Furthermore, the nature of social networks is that old content tends to get pushed down in favor of new content — there is a short lifespan during which your posting will be seen and read by others. With a blog, you control the speed at which your old content rolls off and new content is published above it. You can also spotlight certain posts you may feel are explanatory or elemental in terms of how you want people to perceive you. On the top of my blog, for example, I keep a “Best Of” tab, where I can throw links to what I consider my best or most essential work.

Besides, there are no rules about taking your blog posts and uploading them to LinkedIn, Facebook, Google+ or wherever else you'd want them to be read. But everythi! ng you do should originate at your home base.

From a compliance standpoint, this is probably a best practice anyway — as it essentially serves as an archive for all your public comments.

One last word of caution: Don't spend any money! Hold off on hiring IT people or consultants until you've set yourself up and have determined whether or not this is something to which you want to commit yourself. I recommend WordPress as your blog platform, as Blogger/Blogspot sites tend not to look at professional and aren't as flexible.

I'd buy a domain for $13 and point it at your blog as opposed to having a WordPress address — it's literally the least you can do to make the site seem like some thought was put into it.

Tumblr is another easy option if you just want to get your bearings and experiment with writing daily for a few weeks. The Tumblr platform has limited functionality from the back end, but you can be up and running in under a minute and can choose a decent amount of its style.

I recommend setting up the blog and playing around with it for a few months before you worry about whether anyone is ever going to find it. As I said in my previous column, make a mess while no one is looking and really focus on finding your voice. Your writing chops will improve as you go and you'll be amazed at the shift in content and subject matter that t

Thursday, November 21, 2013

5 Broken Momentum Stocks, 1 Easy Way to Protect Yourself

Momentum stocks are a dangerous game. As quickly as they can make you money, they can empty your trading account and leave you beaten up and bewildered. While the answer for many traders is simply to avoid these momentum stocks, there's a way to participate while still keeping a lid on the downside risk.

The answer, of course, is to use stops — that much is obvious.

But how do you set the stops, and how can you tell when the momentum story is broken for good?

The answer lies in the charts — specifically, the lower trendline. This line not only can serve as a reference point for setting hard stops, but it can also shown when bottom-fishing is unwise. This latter consideration is key, because a former momentum stock that is down 20% or more in a short period invariably attracts traders who were left out the first time around.

Don't fall into this trap.

While avoiding these broken-down momentum stocks might cause you to miss out on gains here and there, it's an easy way to give yourself downside protection.

A number of the market's current "hot stocks" offer some prime illustrations of how trendlines can be used as an indicator of when the momentum story is over.

Tesla Motors (TSLA), for example, chalked up a gain of 420% from April through September, but it has since been hit for a loss of more than 37% after a series of widely reported engine fires. The area in the circle shows the breakdown below the trendline signaled the end of Tesla's momentum story, and the failure of the stock to retake the line was a confirmation.

In short: Traders had a clear signal of when it was time to get out of TSLA stock.

tsla-momentum-stocks

Another example is the Permian Basin fracking company Pioneer Drilling (PXD). Pioneer doubled in its April-October rally, but — in classic "story stock" fashion — its shares moved to an elevated valuation of about 40 times forward earnings.

PXD has since broken the trendlines it established during the rally, indicating that it is in extremely vulnerable territory here. There might be about 7% of upside left, but with the potential for 16.5% downside to its breakout point of $158, the risk-reward just isn't there.

pxd-momentum-stocks

Similarly, GameStop's (GME) break below its first lower trendline was a warning that it was time to exit, and today's downdraft is a confirmation that this momentum story is over. With the stock now broken down, any attempt to play a counter-trend move could prove dangerous.

gme-momentum-stocks

Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), up 98% on the year, is in a similar position as GameStop, although the break below the trendline has unfolded in a much slower fashion. With LGF at this level, traders should take the Hunger Games hype with a grain of salt.

lgf-momentum-stocks

Another momentum stock that is teetering on the abyss is Best Buy (BBY). After defying all gravity — and logic — with its 233% year-to-date gain, BBY is approaching territory that signals a potential breakdown is at hand.

bby-momentum-stocks

On the other side of the coin, this same use of trendlines shows a number of momentum stocks that could have additional upside.

Netflix (NFLX) is the only chart pictured, but Pandora (P), Micron Technology (MU) and TripAdvisor (TRIP) are all among this year's big winners whose uptrends remain firmly intact.

In these cases, the lower trendlines serve as a clear reference point where longs can set their stops.

NFLX

Not everyone believes in the value of technical analysis, but it's particularly useful among momentum stocks because traditional metrics such as fundamentals and valuations are out the window.

What's the appropriate valuation for a company with a game-changing technology that's currently losing money, such as the Teslas and Twitters (TWTR) of the world? Not even the professionals know for sure.

But what is knowable is price — and that's where the charts are the most valuable.

Momentum stocks represent the deep end of the pool for individual investors, and every possible tool helps. Over time, using these trendlines can prove invaluable in navigating this fast-moving area of the market.

As of this writing, Daniel Putnam did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

How to Save $1,000 by Black Friday

Consumers may be feeling the pressure to start their holiday shopping early. But buying gifts now probably isn't such a good idea because many items will cost much less when they're marked down in November and December. Consider, instead, getting a head start on your holiday savings. That is, by setting aside money over the next two months, either by spending less or earning more, you can save up to $1,000 or more to finance your holiday gift giving with cash rather than credit.

SEE ALSO: How to Save on Holiday Airfares

To help you reach your holiday savings goal, we've come up with several cost-cutting moves -- as well as several ways you can pull in extra cash. The actual savings and earnings in the examples below will vary (especially depending on which ones you can implement). But they do demonstrate that it is possible to find an extra $1,000 in your budget over two months.

Ways to save

Drop your land line. If you're paying $44 a month (AT&T's current rate for unlimited long-distance calling) for home phone service but rely mainly on your cell phone, eliminate this monthly expense. And to avoid having to pay more to get unlimited minutes for your cell phone, consider using a free Internet calling service to make calls from home. See How to Make Calls for Free for more information about these services. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS: $88

Cut the cost of smart phone service. If you're no longer locked into your service provider's two-year contract (the standard contract typically required when you purchase a smart phone), consider switching to a prepaid wireless provider. For example, you can get unlimited talk, text and data for $45 a month from Straight Talk Wireless, a prepaid carrier owned by Walmart that uses AT&T's network. AT&T charges $109.99 a month for an individual plan with unlimited talk, text and 300 MB of data. So you can save nearly $65 a month by switching. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS: $130

Increase your home insurance deductible. You can cut the cost of your monthly premium by raising your deductible. I shaved $300 off my annual homeowners insurance premium by boosting my deductible from $1,000 to $2,000 a couple of years ago. That equates to a savings of $25 a month. To learn more about the money-saving benefits of boosting your deductible, see An Easy Way to Save on Homeowners Insurance. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS: $50

Brown bag it. That $5 deli sandwich you regularly buy for lunch might seem like a good deal. But if you do the math, you'll find that you're spending $25 a week (at least). You could buy a pound of deli meat for about $6 and a loaf of bread for about $2 or $3 and make sandwiches for a week for a little less than $10 -- saving you about $15 a week. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS = $120

Drive less. If you have a bike, consider leaving your car in the garage for the next two months and cycling to work. Half of the working population in the U.S. commutes five miles or less to work. So if your round trip is 10 miles, you can save $4.55 a day by biking rather than driving, according to our How Much Can I Save Bicycling to Work? calculator. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS = $182

Quit your vices. Easier said than done, right? By why wait until the New Year to resolve to get healthier? If you quit smoking or drinking now, you could save a lot over the next two months. Considering that the average cost of a pack of cigarettes is about $6, you could save $54 by Black Friday if you have a pack-a-week habit and a whopping $378 if you have a pack-a-day habit. If you cut out your nightly glass of wine or bottle of beer, you could easily save $10 a week or more (depending on the quality of booze you buy). Over the nearly nine weeks until Black Friday, you would save at least $90. See Six Healthy Habits That Will Save You Money for more on the financial benefits of quitting your vices. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS = $306 (for a moderate smoker and drinker)

Cut the cable cord. If you're a TV junkie, this might be a tough money-saving move to make. But the savings can be significant. The average cable bill is $62 a month, according to the Federal Communications Commission. So consider cutting the cord and watching TV shows for free online or renting DVDs for $1 a night from Redbox kiosks. See Cut Your Cable Cord for cable TV alternatives. Or stop watching TV altogether and spend your free time looking for more ways to save money or trying the money-earning strategies listed below. TWO MONTHS OF SAVINGS = $124

TOTAL POTENTIAL SAVINGS = $1,000

For more ways to cut costs and put cash back in your wallet, see our 28 Ways to Waste Money slide show.

Ways to earn

Adjust your tax withholding. This is an easy way most people can earn more money. More than 100 million people received a tax refund in 2013, and the average refund was $2,651, according to the IRS. That means all those people are letting Uncle Sam hang on to too much of their money throughout the year. If you're among those who got a refund, keep that money for yourself (or gifts for others) by filing a new W-4 with your employer to adjust your tax withholding. To find out how many exemptions you should be claiming, try our Easy-To-Use Tax Withholding Calculator. The changes will go into effect on your next paycheck. TWO MONTHS OF EARNINGS = $442 (based on the average refund)

Sell your stuff on consignment. Look around your house and in your closet – there's bound to be stuff you no longer use or clothing you haven't worn in years. You can turn these items into cash quickly without the hassle of selling them yourself by taking them to a consignment store. Look for upscale consignment stores that get a lot of traffic if you want top dollar for clothing, furniture, linens, china, glassware or artwork. Expect to split the profit 50/50 with the store. I recently made over $300 selling furniture and home accessories at consignment stores. See How to Sell Clothes on Consignment and What to Sell – and Not Sell – at Consignment Shops for tips. TWO MONTHS OF EARNINGS = $300

Participate in clinical trials. Put extra cash in your pocket by becoming a human guinea pig. Compensation depends on the nature of the trial and the amount of time involved, but payment can range from as little as $25 for a couple of hours of your time to thousands of dollars for longer-term commitments. You can research medical studies that might be recruiting participants at ClinicalTrials.gov, a database run by the National Institutes of Health. Search by location to identify local trials. TWO MONTHS OF EARNINGS = $25 and up per trial

Get paid for your opinions. In-person focus groups run by marketing research firms such as Delve can pay $50 to $200 for your time. But its facilities are only in a handful of cities. Online and phone surveys offer another way to receive compensation for your opinions no matter where you live. Survey participants with firms such as Harris Interactive and Schlesinger Associates can rack up rewards points redeemable for gift cards, which you can use to do your holiday shopping. Plus, with every Harris Poll you complete, you'll have a chance to enter a $10,000 sweepstakes. TWO MONTHS OF EARNINGS = $50 (minimum for a focus group; gift card amounts vary)

Join a street team. This is a way for young adults who are outgoing and articulate to earn some fast cash. Street teams promote products, films, albums, events and more by handing out samples, interacting with people on the street, or dressing as mascots. To get a job earning up to $25 an hour, sign up with a company such as Street Team Promotion, which handles promotions in big cities nationwide. Make sure that the company has a contract that specifies when you'll get paid. A more traditional way to earn cash for the holidays is to get a seasonal job. Retailers, restaurants, hotels and shipping and delivery companies often hire extra workers during the busy holiday season. Hourly rates will vary. Look for seasonal jobs at job-search sites such as CareerBuilder.com and Monster.com, and check with local temp agencies and CraigsList. TWO MONTHS OF EARNINGS = $200 (working four hours per month on a street team)

TOTAL POTENTIAL EARNINGS = $1,017

For more ideas, see 11 More Ways to Get Extra Cash.



Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Finra goes social

finra, social media, twitter

Most investment advisers shudder when they think about Finra in relation to social media. They worry about complying with the broker-dealer regulator's guidance on Internet behavior and wonder whether their next Tweet or Facebook post may get them into trouble.

This week, however, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. reminded advisers that it's not just focused on monitoring what others are doing in cyberspace -- it's a participant in social media itself.

On Thursday, I knew that the Finra board was due to make a big decision about a rule on broker-dealer compensation. I checked its website obsessively for any clue about what had transpired. While I was waiting for something to be posted, I scrolled through my Twitter feed – and found the answer I was seeking.

Finra made the board's move known by tweeting a link to its press release. The statement itself didn't hit my inbox until several minutes later. Those of us on Twitter found out first.

I was surprised to get the news this way. But I shouldn't have been. It turns out that Finra was an early adopter. It's been on Twitter for several years – longer than I have, in fact.

In disseminating news from the board meeting, Finra also waded into other aspects of digital media. Within an hour of the board's announcement, it posted a video of Finra chief executive Rick Ketchum and lead governor Jack Brennan discussing the meeting.

It was the second time that Finra used a video to explain board actions. A link was included in the post-meeting e-mail to members.

Like the Securities and Exchange Commission, Finra limits its Twitter activity to putting out links to news releases, investor alerts and speeches. It's using social media as a push technology for widely distributing the message that it wants to send. It's not looking to engage in a conversation with Tweeps, as demonstrated by the fact that it “follows” only four organizations.

Still, it's encouraging that when a major decision like the broker-comp rule came down, Finra didn't tuck it away in a nether region of its website. It made sure that everyone could access background about the development easily. That's pretty good for an organization that is often accused of being opaque.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Cook & Bynum Fund: An Overlooked Gem

If you just gave Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX) a quick once-over, you probably wouldn't even consider investing in it. Since its inception in mid 2009 through July 8, the fund returned an annualized 14.6%. Standard & Poor's 500-stock index returned an annualized 17.9% over the same period.

See Also: High-Quality Stocks Beat the Market

Morningstar says the fund charges an annual expense ratio of 1.88%. At first blush, it's easy to see why the fund has attracted only $116.5 million.

End of story? Not if you love to dig into funds. First, that expense ratio. It's out of date. Expenses are still high at 1.49%, but that's par for the course in such a small fund.

Now look at the three-year Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted return. It's 2.0, which is extremely high for a stock fund. A big reason for that high Sharpe ratio is that the fund has been only about half as volatile as the S&P 500 over the past three years.

Shall we dig a little deeper? Turns out that managers Richard Cook and J. Dowe Bynum, who are based in Birmingham, Ala., have invested money for private clients since 2001. Since then through March 31, their annualized return (after fees) was 9.4% — more than double the S&P's 4.3%. Not only that, but the returns were achieved with average cash levels of about 25% of assets. The mutual fund currently has 40% of its assets in cash.

All this sounded so intriguing that I decided I needed to learn more. So I called up Cook. He and Bynum, both 35, have been close friends since they were children and have been fascinated with the stock market since Cook's father gave his son five shares each of five stocks at age 8. Their fifth-grade teacher enrolled the boys in the high school Stock Market Game, which teaches students about economics and finance in part by giving them hypothetical cash to invest. The precocious Cook and Bynum won the game's annual national investing contest.

The pair have been investing for a living since college. They manage a total of $275 million, including what's in the fund. "Picking stocks is what we're passionate about," Cook says. The firm has no analysts. A third partner handles everything but the stock picking.

This is not your ordinary stock fund. The fund owns just seven stocks — one of the most concentrated portfolios I've ever seen. And two-thirds of the stock money is in consumer stocks.

Again, that's off-putting at first glance. But when you look at the holdings, they're just what you'd want in a focused fund. The managers have 15% of assets in Microsoft (MSFT), 13% in Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), 11% in Coca-Cola (KO), 7% in Arca Continental and 5% in Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares (BRK.B). (Arca is the second-largest Coke bottler in Mexico.) British food retailer Tesco (TSCO) and Procter & Gamble (PG) round out the list of stock holdings, with 5% and 4% of assets, respectively.

/p>All these companies seem solid enough to survive virtually any economic catastrophe and, in my view, sell at relatively modest valuations. They have great brands, boast pristine balance sheets and seem to have sustainable competitive advantages over their rivals.

Cook says he and Bynum prefer high-quality businesses. Before they buy a stock, they project how they think the company will perform over the next 12 to 15 years. "We know our accuracy won't be very good," Cook says. "But when you pay 15 times earnings for a stock, you're implicitly saying you know where a company will be in 15 years." On average, they own a stock for about four years.

Best Value Companies To Buy For 2014

Cook and Bynum haven't always focused on quality stocks. When they launched their business, they liked small U.S. companies. Until two years ago, when valuations got too rich for them, they owned a lot of emerging-markets stocks, mainly in Mexico.

The pair loves to kick the tires. "With Microsoft, that means reading bleeding-edge tech blogs and trying out beta products. With Coke, that means driving across Argentina, looking at how Coke products — and competitors — are displayed in gas stations," Cook says. Nothing wrong with that.

Cook knows that stock picking can be a humbling business. "It's important to rub your noses in your mistakes," he says. "That's how you learn."

The 40% cash level, he says, isn't a product of big-picture forecasting. When he and Bynum look at a company, they buy only if they think they can make 10% annually on it. If a stock doesn't exceed that hurdle, they don't buy. They're not finding much to buy in today's market.

This fund, in my view, shouldn't be the main course for anyone's investments. Sturdy as the holdings are, there are still only seven of them. And there's only so much cash that I want to pay 1.49% a year to own. Cash was a great asset during many of the firm's early years, but it has been a huge drag on returns since the stock market bottomed in March 2009. As a low-risk side dish, however, Cook & Bynum Fund has real appeal.

Steven T. Goldberg is an investment adviser in the Washington, D.C. area.



Sunday, November 17, 2013

Tibco Needs to Raise the Bar

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- On July 3, I told you that Tibco Software (TIBX) looked like a great buy. This is even though the company, which is in a heated battle with (among others) Oracle (ORCL) and IBM (IBM), was coming off a fiscal second quarter in which revenue dropped 1% year over year. In that article, I said:

"I still like Tibco's long-term prospects -- even though many others don't. Management deserves credit for the moves that they've made, many of which should create more value for shareholders over time. Accordingly, with long-term revenue growth that should outperform both IBM and Oracle, I value shares of Tibco at $25, or 15% above current value."

Today, given that shares of Tibco are trading only percentages shy of my $25 target, it's time to re-evaluate the company's prospects, especially since Tibco is due to report third-quarter earnings on Thursday.

Truth be told, when factoring in the company's earnings miss in the June quarter, there's no denying that Tibco has not had a tremendous year. But even so, I don't believe there's been a software company that has significantly outperformed to the extent investors would believe that weak enterprise spending has not had an impact on the entire sector. To that end, my 15% upward bet on Tibco following the stock's selloff had much to do with the fact that the Street grossly overreacted. Not to mention, there was some cause for optimism that enterprise spending would begin to pick up, which it has. I won't lie and tell you that the corporate-spending recovery has been as robust as I expected. In that regard, I can't blame those who bailed on the stock. But from my vantage point, I can see that after long periods of underperformance, Tibco, which is in the midst of some pretty significant restructuring initiatives, has proven capable of navigating this soft spending patch. That the Street dismissed Tibco's 3% sequential revenue growth, while overly emphasizing the 1% year-over-year decline, was a perfect example. Granted, the company still underperformed in year-over-year license revenue. But on a relative basis, we can't discount that Tibco's performance was in the same quarter that Oracle posted growth of less-than-1%, missing Oracle's own guidance. Plus, investors ignored that not only did Tibco grow license revenue 5% sequentially, to $82 million, but the company continues to do well in maintenance revenue, which advanced at a better-than-expected rate of 6% year over year and 3% sequentially.

The bears, meanwhile, remained unimpressed.

Look, I'm not suggesting that this was an extraordinary quarter by any stretch. I'm not going to pretend that the prolonged weakness in Europe and government spending suddenly no longer matter. Still, we have to agree that on the basis of non-GAAP EPS of 18 cents, which met Street estimates, management's efforts to reorganize infrastructure sales are moving along better than expected.

Tibco's challenge -- above all else -- is to grow revenue at a rate that convinces the Street that the company is gaining some real operational leverage. In other words, while there are clear business improvements, there is still plenty of work left for the company to do to justify more gains in the share price. I believe this work starts on Thursday, when third-quarter earnings are released.

The Street will be looking for EPS of 22 cents on revenue of $258.2 million, which represents revenue growth of just 1.3%. Essentially, there's not a whole lot that's expected in terms of top-line growth. I believe this is a situation where the Street has essentially embraced Tibco's new direction, while appreciating the company's efforts at reorganization. To go along with the company's existing strengths in messaging and integration, over the past couple of quarters, management has been working to grow Tibco's capabilities in areas like real-time business intelligence, visualization and complex event processing. These are technologies that are specifically targeted to capitalize on the growth of big data. These area -- including message-oriented middleware, where Tibco currently ranks second to IBM in market share -- makes Tibco a direct rival of giants like IBM and Oracle. What's more, management recently discussed shoring up the company's strengths in data analytics, which is not only Oracle's specialty, but it's also a market in which SAP has shown strong interest. While Tibco isn't expected to immediately threaten Oracle, IBM or SAP, the company's ambitions and its high level of execution makes it one to watch. While growth has not been exceptional, Tibco deserves some time to get its house in order. It's a good thing that management has done such an excellent job of communicating the company's course. The Street, meanwhile, even by virtue of its dismissive reaction to the company's progress, appears to now be on the same page. While this can certainly be a good thing for the company, it also means that unless Tibco blows the Street away with earnings and raises guidance, this stock just might have reached its ceiling. At the time of publication, the author held no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @saintssense This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Saintvilus is a co-founder of StockSaints.com where he serves as CEO and editor-in-chief. After 20 years in the IT industry, including 5 years as a high school computer teacher, Saintvilus decided his second act would be as a stock analyst - bringing logic from an investor's point of view. His goal is to remove the complicated aspect of investing and present it to readers in a way that makes sense. His background in engineering has provided him with strong analytical skills. That, along with 15 years of trading and investing, has given him the tools needed to assess equities and appraise value. Richard is a Warren Buffett disciple who bases investment decisions on the quality of a company's management, growth aspects, return on equity, and price-to-earnings ratio. His work has been featured on CNBC, Yahoo! Finance, MSN Money, Forbes, Motley Fool and numerous other outlets. Follow @saintssense

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Kimberly Clark Corp Contemplates Healthcare Business Spinoff (KMB)

Kimberly Clark (KMB) announced that it may be spinning off of the company’s healthcare business. Kimberly Clark’s board approved the move on Friday morning.

The Kleenex maker’s healthcare business sells medical devices, as well surgical and sterilization products. The health care business reported sales of $1.6 billion in 2012.

Nothing is set in stone as of now, but if the spin off went through, Robert Abernathy, a current executive involved in global nonwovens and continuous improvement and sustainability, would lead the new company as CEO. The final decision about the spinoff will be made in the next several months.

Investors reacted positively to this potential spinoff news, sending KMB stock up $2.34, or 2.13%, in pre-market trading. The company’s stock is up 27% YTD.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Why the Rally May Take a Break

Each Monday, MoneyBeat publishes a short column in the WSJ print edition highlighting a statistic getting traction in the markets.  This week's "Big Number" is 78%, the percentage of the bull-market rally that has taken place during earnings season.

The stock market's relentless push higher could be due for a pause.

The S&P 500 has registered five straight weeks of gains and is up 4% during that period, a stretch that has coincided with third-quarter earnings season.

That also corresponds with a trend that has driven the S&P 500's rally this year and the bull market that began in March 2009: The pace of the market's increases has surged during corporate reporting periods and has slowed during so-called earnings off-seasons.

Top 10 Penny Companies To Buy Right Now

Since the second quarter of 2009, 78% of the rally has occurred during earnings seasons, according to Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. He defines these reporting periods as the two weeks prior to Alcoa Inc.(AA)'s quarterly reports and then the four weeks afterward.

Consider this year's action: The S&P 500 jumped 4.6% and 7.5%, respectively, in the first- and second-quarter earnings seasons, according to Mr. Kleintop's calculations. But in the weeks this year when a bulk of companies weren't reporting results, the stock index fell 1.8% and 0.3%, he says.

Overall, about three-quarters of the S&P 500's increase this year has taken place during earning season.

"Corporate profits are still the lifeblood of the stock market," Mr. Kleintop told MoneyBeat.

Now that the third-quarter reporting period has come to an end, the worry is the recent trend will continue. That means it might be tough for the market to keep rising at such a rapid rate.

"While we expect stocks may continue to provide gains for investors, the pace of those gains is likely to slow and volatility may pick up," Mr. Kleintop says.

Monday, November 11, 2013

5 Best High Tech Stocks To Invest In 2014

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Babcock & Wilcox (NYSE: BWC  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

5 Best High Tech Stocks To Invest In 2014: Innovaro Inc(INV)

Innovaro, Inc. provides a comprehensive portfolio of end-to-end innovation solutions primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom. It helps clients develop compelling strategies to drive and catalyze growth, source externally developed technologies, create added value from their intellectual property, and gain foresight into marketplace and technology developments that affect their business. The company operates in two segments, Strategic Services and Technology Services. The Strategic Services segment offers strategic innovation consulting; business model and product development consulting; identify and develop new segments and markets; and create and act on game-changing strategies. The Technology Services segment provides futures scenario development and planning; custom and syndicated research; online information services; IP consulting; IP and market landscape analysis; technology search; In- and out-licensing; online marketplaces; and partner search and prof iling services. Its clients include consumer goods, consumer packaged goods, retail, medical, telecommunications, chemicals, media, financial services, energy, utilities, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as UTEK Corporation and changed its name to Innovaro, Inc. in July 2010. Innovaro, Inc. is based in Tampa, Florida.

5 Best High Tech Stocks To Invest In 2014: Kaminak Gold Corporation (KAM.V)

Kaminak Gold Corporation, an exploration stage company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold, and other precious and base metal properties in Canada and the United States. It primarily explores the Coffee Gold Project, a 150,000 acres property located in Yukon Territory, Canada. The company also holds interests in various other properties located in Quebec, Nunavut, Ontario, Yukon, British Columbia, and Manitoba, as well as in Nevada. Kaminak Gold Corporation was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

5 Best Heal Care Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Excellon Resources Inc (EXN.TO)

Excellon Resources Inc., a mineral resource company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties primarily in Mexico. It primarily explores for silver, lead, and zinc ores. The company owns a 100% interest in the Platosa property covering a total area of 40,864 hectares located in northeastern Durango States. It also has interests in the Miguel Auza property covering a total area of 41,000 hectares of under explored land in northern Zacatecas, as well as in the DeSantis Project situated near Timmins, Ontario and the Beschefer Project, located in northwestern Quebec. Excellon Resources Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

5 Best High Tech Stocks To Invest In 2014: Genesis Land Devel Com Npv (GDC.TO)

Genesis Land Development Corp., a real estate development company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, development, subdivision, construction, sale, and leasing of land, residential lots and homes, and commercial properties in Alberta and British Columbia. It operates in four divisions: Land Development, Single-Family Home Building, Multi-Family Home Building, and Commercial Development. The Land Development division principally develops residential lots in the cities of Calgary, Airdrie, Edmonton, and Cochrane, Alberta; and in Prince George, Kamloops, and Radium, British Columbia. The Single-Family Home Building division builds and sells single-family homes. The Multi-Family Home Building division builds town homes and apartment complexes. The Commercial division engages in selling, leasing, and developing commercial, industrial, and office properties. The company was formerly known as Genesis Capital Corp. and changed its name to Genesis Land Deve lopment Corp. in October 1998. Genesis Land Development Corp. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

5 Best High Tech Stocks To Invest In 2014: Ridley Inc (RCL.TO)

Ridley Inc. engages in the commercial animal nutrition business in North America. The company manufactures and markets a range of animal nutrition products, including formulated complete feeds, premixes, and feed supplements; block supplements, such as low moisture, pressed, compressed, composite, and poured blocks as well as loose minerals; vitamin and trace mineral premixes, small packaged specialty products, medicated and non-medicated feed additives, and micro feed ingredients; and animal health products. It also provides nutrition and sales support services for retailers. The company offers its products in bulk, as well as in various sizes, bags, and barrels. It primarily serves consumers, commercial producers, dealers, and mass merchandisers; livestock and poultry breeders and growers; and the equine, companion animal, and hobby farm segments directly, as well as through distributor and dealer channels. The company is headquartered in Mankato, Minnesota. Fairfax Fina ncial Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Vodafone Seen as AT&T Prey Amid $130 Billion Verizon Deal

Simon Dawson/Bloomberg Vodafone is poised to get as much as $130 billion from Verizon Communications Inc. for its 45 percent stake in the companies' mobile joint venture, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

As Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) nears an exit from its 14-year-old U.S. wireless venture with Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Europe's biggest mobile-phone company may have to make a tough choice: buy or be bought.

AT&T Inc., which has scoured Europe for potential acquisitions this year, would examine assets that remain after Vodafone sells its 45 percent stake in Verizon Wireless, people familiar with the matter said. The U.S. company is only interested in wireless and would be deterred if Vodafone expands in cable and fixed-line businesses, said one of the people, asking not to be named discussing internal deliberations.

Vodafone and Verizon are discussing a price of about $130 billion for the stake, people with knowledge of the talks said. AT&T could pay about 80 billion pounds ($124 billion) for what's left of Vodafone, according to Robin Bienenstock, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, basing her estimate on a valuation of six times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization.

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"Were somebody to buy Vodafone, AT&T would be the primary candidate," said James Barford, a telecommunications analyst at Enders Analysis in London. "AT&T would both be likely to summon the financial resources and has already expressed an interest in Europe."

Europe Attraction

Vodafone is one of Britain's most global non-financial companies with assets from Sydney to Johannesburg overseen from a bucolic headquarters outside London. To revive its European business, where wireless mergers are hampered by regulation, Chief Executive Officer Vittorio Colao has started acquiring wireline assets, agreeing in June to pay $10 billion for Germany's largest cable-television provider.

AT&T has examined takeover candidates including Vodafone's assets, U.K. mobile carrier EE -- a venture of Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) and Orange SA (ORA) -- and parts of Spain's Telefonica SA (TEF), people familiar with the company's plans said in June. AT&T is attracted to Europe because of its relatively recent introduction of faster, fourth-generation networks, which have been available for years in the U.S.

Brad Burns, a spokesman for Dallas-based AT&T, declined to comment on any potential M&A targets. Ben Padovan, a spokesman for Newbury-based Vodafone, declined to comment on whether the carrier may become a takeover candidate.

Vodafone gained 0.7 percent to close at 206.25 pence in London, adding to yesterday's 8.2 percent jump. Verizon lost 0.9 percent to $47.38 in New York. AT&T (T) added 0.5 percent to $33.83.

Cash Conundrum

Vodafone would fit AT&T's global strategy, and the cash proceeds from the Verizon Wireless stake sale could make it more interesting for an acquirer, Bienenstock said.

Verizon is working with several banks to raise $10 billion from each, or enough to finance about $60 billion of the buyout, people familiar with the plans have said. In a statement yesterday, Vodafone said there's no certainty an agree! ment with Verizon will be reached.

"With 30 to 40 billion pounds cash in its pocket, Vodafone would quickly look an attractive target," Bienenstock wrote in a note. "Alternatively, Vodafone could use the cash to build a bigger business itself. This would be more risky and time consuming, but it could be more fun and, depending on one's view, more value creating."

AT&T's likely strategy would be to accelerate Vodafone's 4G rollout, Enders's Barford said. Vodafone switched on its 4G service in the U.K. yesterday, while consumers in some other European markets are still waiting for speedier connections.

Low Valuations

The U.S. carrier is unconvinced of the advantages of running combined fixed-line and wireless networks, and would be more interested in Vodafone were it to remain a primarily mobile provider, said one of the people.

Vodafone has already expanded beyond wireless service, and in June beat John Malone's Liberty Global (LBTYA) Plc to take over Germany's Kabel Deutschland Holding AG. (KD8) Vodafone and Verizon accelerated talks on the stake sale after the Kabel Deutschland offer, which put additional pressure on the British company's finances, a person familiar with the matter said.

If 51-year-old Colao opts to step up acquisitions, the Verizon Wireless stake sale would supply the funds to buy almost any company in the industry at a time when valuations of European telecommunications firms are at an all-time low. At the end of its last financial year ended in March, Vodafone had about $11.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. It reported net debt of 24.9 billion pounds as of June 30, including its joint ventures.

Cash Pile

Vodafone's cash pile alone, including the Verizon Wireless proceeds, would be worth more than the combined market capitalization of France's Orange, at $27 billion, and Telecom Italia SpA (TIT), at almost $12 billion. Liberty Global, which has cable operations in countries including Germany and the! Netherla! nds, is valued at about $30 billion.

Vodafone is now heavily focused on mature European markets such as Italy, the U.K. and Germany. It also has operations in Asia and Africa.

Expansions into fixed-line businesses have two primary advantages for mobile operators. Selling so-called triple- and quadruple-play packages that combine mobile, landline, TV and broadband services makes customers more reluctant to upend their entire digital lives by switching providers. Owning high-capacity fiber-optic networks helps carriers deal with the demands of surging mobile-data traffic.

Broadband Expansion

Last year, Vodafone bought Cable & Wireless Worldwide Plc, an operator of U.K. fixed-line networks, for $1.8 billion. Its deal for Kabel Deutschland is adding a formidable fixed-line operation that Vodafone will combine with its mobile business in Germany.

Vodafone was also considering an acquisition of Italy's Fastweb SpA, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News in June. Other European cable companies that aren't part of a larger multinational group include Spain's Grupo Corporativo ONO SA, France's Numericable SAS and Zon Multimedia SGPS SA in Portugal.

"Both the U.S. and European telecommunication markets stand to face some tough competition with the increasing move towards converged, triple-play offers," said Ronald Klingebiel, a professor at the Warwick Business School. "To weather these impending storms, Vodafone is right to sell the stake so it can concentrate on its priority markets in Europe."

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Did Twitter Mark 'The Top'?

While business travel can certainly be a chore at times (can't the folks at American Airlines figure out to schedule maintenance BEFORE they board the entire flight?) it also allows one the opportunity to get away from the blinking screens, the phones, the tweets and spend some time thinking about the big picture market environment.

Uh, It's a Bull Market

Although Thursday's algo-induced dive certainly wasn't any fun and definitely did some damage to the charts on a near-term basis, it is important to recognize that the S&P 500 is up 22.5 percent so far this year and that if calendar 2013 ended yesterday, the year's return would be one of the top results seen over the last fifteen years.

So, while the "ignition algos" may have created some fear yesterday and the bears could certainly spend some more time exploring the downside in the coming days, the key to this market continues to be that it's a bull market until proven otherwise.

Bears: The Top is In

The bear camp will argue that "all good things come to an end" and that since "no one rings a bell at market tops," investors should be ignoring all the chatter about new all-time highs and instead be focusing on the next big decline.

Those dressed in fur this morning also argue that Twitter's (NYSE: TWTR) IPO marked an important emotional top for the market as many analysts feel that the firm's inflated value is an indication of a "bubbly" market environment. Therefore, there was no shortage of traders looking to "call the top" yesterday and make a name for themselves by moving to the short side after TWTR gained 73 percent on its first day of trading.

However, remember that the bears have been singing a similar tune all year. So, before one runs out and starts buying the inverse stock market ETFs that profit when stock prices fall (SH, SDS, SPXU come to mind) or start "buying volatility" via the VXX, VXY, VIXY, etc., there are a couple of points worth considering.

The Public is Buying

As if the thirty-two record closes for the S&P 500 weren't a clue, the fact that the public appears to be going gaga for stock funds this year should remind investors that there is money coming into this stock market.

According to TrimTabs, the public has poured $277 billion into U.S.-listed stock mutual funds and ETFs so far this year. For those keeping score at home, that's the most for any calendar year since the $324 billion of inflows seen in 2000.

Further, the public appears to be emboldened by the market's recent new highs as about one-sixth of that cash has been placed into stock funds and ETFs in October alone. TrimTabs notes that the $45.5 billion in net inflows seen in October was the fifth-highest monthly total on record.

Remember, Strength Begets Strength

Yes Virginia, it is true that the public tends to come late to most stock market parties. And yes, it is also true that the last time the public appeared to be this excited about stocks was right about the time the tech bubble was bursting.

However, it is also worth noting that new highs in the stock market tend to beget more new highs before the bears ultimately gain control.

According to Ned Davis Research, the stock market tends to move higher - a lot higher - on average when the S&P 500 first moves to a new high after a bear market. NDR's data shows that since 1928, the S&P has gained an average of 40.3 percent over a period of 644 days AFTER the first new high following a bear market has been reached.

On a median basis, the S&P has gained 18.4 percent over 417 days following a new high.

Near-Term: It's All About the Fed

However, this morning the game appears to be all about the Fed. While the Jobs report showed the economy produced nearly double the number of new jobs last month than had been anticipated, traders appear to be selling the news.

The idea here is simple really. Traders assume that the report puts "the taper" back on the table at the December FOMC meeting. And since the majority of economists surveyed by the WSJ are currently looking for the taper to begin either in January or March, the good news on the economy may be bad for stocks as traders fret about the outlook for the "liquidity trade."

The bottom line is the bears have had lots of chances to get something going of late and have squandered nearly all of them. Thus, the question is if this time will be different.

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