Monday, September 30, 2013

Futures Thrill To Taper Delay, Jobless Claims Near Six-Year Lows; JPM To Pay ‘Whale’ Fine

Stocks seemed ready to plunge even farther into record territory after Wednesday's euphoria.

The market held onto gains despite a rise in jobless claims: Initial unemployment claims were up 15,000 to 309,000 in the week ended Sept. 14; the week prior was also revised upward by 2,000, to 294,000. The numbers remain murky because of backlogs in California and Nevada that might be skewing data.

Nonetheless, the figure came in well below economists' expectations for 338,000 claims, and unemployment remains near a six-year low.

Elsewhere, investors were still digesting the Federal Reserve's decisions not to begin pulling back on its $85 billion per month bond-buying program.

While the decision obviously pleased the market, the decision carries its own problems, as investors are once again left wondering when the Fed's highly accommodative policies will start to wind down—not to mention the implications of a reduced forecast for U.S. economic growth.

"Markets were primed for a reduction, and along with a host of other flashing yellow lights that was enough to make plenty of market watchers cautious, including us," wrote Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group.  Yes, the Fed will eventually cut the QE tow rope if/when labor markets improve, but for now they seem content to keep toting the barge and lifting the bale.  That leaves markets free to head to the bar, hopefully avoiding incarceration along the way.  Remember 1999, when markets ripped through Q4 because so many investors had bided their time waiting for the dot-com bubble to collapse earlier in the year?  Cue the music, because this is beginning to look like the same market setup."

Yet for now, markets seem happy to push ahead on the surprise leniency and jobs numbers.

The Fed also said yesterday that mortgage lending reached a five-year high, boosted by refinancing activity as rates remain historically low.

Also in the news, European leaders have announced changes to budget policies that are largely seen reducing austerity measures required in nations that were most impacted by the financial crisis.

In company-specific news, J.P. Morgan (JPM) will pay a $920 million fine in its 'whale' case, as it admitted to wrongdoing in a settlement.

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ConAgra (CAG) was down 1.4% after its first-quarter profit fell, missing forecasts.

Rite Aid (RAD) jumped 12% after it reported an unexpected profit, thanks to ongoing sales growth and stronger margins.

Tesla (TSLA) was up nearly 3% in before the bell, after Deutsche Bank raised its  target price to $200 late Wednesday.

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